Driven by the lifting of pandemic-related travel and other restrictions and strong pent-up demand, international tourist arrivals are expected to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2024, reaching 88% of the 2019 level in 2023,¹ while at $9.9 trillion, T&T’s contribution to global GDP is nearly at pre-pandemic levels. The Middle East had the highest recovery rates in international tourist arrivals (20% above the 2019 level),² while Europe, a resilient destination with strong intraregional travel flows, Africa and the Americas all showed a strong recovery of around 90% in 2023. In 2024, global tourism growth is expected to be reinforced by the continued satisfaction of pent-up demand and growth in major Asian markets after travel restrictions have been lifted following a delay compared to other regions.³

However, the uneven nature of the aforementioned recovery, labour shortages, and supply and demand imbalances leading to travel price increases and service disruptions have put pressure on destinations and businesses in the T&T sector. Moreover, while travel demand has proved resilient, the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape, defined by economic uncertainty, high inflation and energy prices, increased interest rates and conflicts from Ukraine to the Middle East, has nevertheless exacerbated the sector’s difficult operating conditions and may yet dampen sector growth.⁴ Combined with the impact of climate events such as global heatwaves and wildfires in countries like Greece⁵ and the return of overcrowding at destinations such as Venice,⁶ the sector’s exposure to and influence on economic, social and environmental issues has become even more apparent.

Against this dynamic backdrop, it has become imperative for T&T government and business decision-makers and other stakeholders to ensure that the sector not only addresses near-term issues such as supply and demand imbalances but also ensures sector readiness for the growing economic, environmental, societal, geopolitical and technological challenges and opportunities in the future. If T&T can be developed in an inclusive, sustainable and resilient manner, it can become a powerful tool to address many worldwide challenges, contributing to the collective well-being of the global community. To help guide this goal, this year’s Travel & Tourism Development Index special focus section will outline the external future risks and opportunities the sector will likely face in the coming years, and what can be done to help the sector deal with these trends while simultaneously making it a source of global resilience and prosperity.