ETI scores assess a country’s current energy system without accounting for the pace of its transition. The concept of transition momentum highlights the countries that are rapidly transitioning and those that face risks. While there is no globally
defined percentage to measure the progress of the energy transition, its pace depends on various factors, including the country and region-specific circumstances, the availability of resources and technology, the degree of political commitment and public support, and the overall urgency of addressing the climate crisis.

Although ETI scores reached their highest in 2024, transition momentum has slowed in the last three years.

ETI scores showed a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.22% in 2024 compared to 0.83% in 2021.

Figure 5: Energy Transition Index momentum, three-year CAGR percentage, 2015-2024

Recent macroeconomic conditions have significantly impacted the equity dimension of the energy transition. Inflation and high interest rates have compounded the challenge making it difficult for lower-income communities and developing nations to invest in sustainable energy solutions. These solutions often come with higher upfront costs, further exacerbated by the increased cost of borrowing. Additionally, energy prices have surged in recent years due to several factors: increased demand post-pandemic recovery, supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions affecting oil and gas supply, and underinvestment in traditional energy sectors amid the shift to clean energy sources. These issues have led to tighter energy markets and higher prices, hindering accessibility to affordable clean energy solutions and impeding progress towards an equitable energy transition.³⁸

Furthermore, energy supply disruptions have intensified pressure on energy security measures. In response, nations have prioritized immediate energy security concerns, often at the expense of a more equitable and sustainable transition.

Several countries have made notable progress in their energy transition journeys, each with tailored pathways to address their unique challenges and opportunities.

Among the major global economies, the countries with the strongest momentum include Australia, China, Indonesia, Brazil and Canada. Australia’s 2022 Climate Change Act enhanced the country’s political commitment to sustainable transition and has ramped up its security dimension by further reducing reliance on fuel imports.³⁹ China continues to be the major player in manufacturing clean energy technologies and has significantly ramped up its domestic renewable energy capacity, adding record-level solar photovoltaics (PV).⁴⁰ Indonesia enhanced energy access, especially in rural areas, reaching 98% access in 2023, compared to 93% in 2022. Canada’s 2021 Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) permit allowed the commercialization of several emerging technologies in some applications,
such as carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) and clean hydrogen.⁴¹

Lebanon, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, and South Africa are the top five countries in energy transition momentum. While these countries have shown significant strides, there is still considerable room for improvement. Nevertheless, the success stories of these countries, which are in the lower quartile of the ETI ranking, provide valuable and specific lessons, especially for those nations that have, so far, experienced an unbalanced energy transition.

Additionally, moving the needle on a meaningful global energy transition requires that countries with lower ETI scores (yet showing considerable potential for progress) hasten their transition efforts. Common themes across the countries with the highest momentum scores include:

For example, in Lebanon, a significant reduction in fossil fuel subsidies catalysed a surge in distributed solar energy.⁴² Meanwhile, Ethiopia embarked on its
National Electrification Program in 2017, charting a course towards universal energy access by 2025, with a specific target of providing off-grid power solutions to 35% of its population.⁴³ Tanzania has emerged as a front-runner in Sub-Saharan Africa, with a rapid expansion of electricity, achieving a notable 37.7% increase in accessibility across both rural and urban areas from 2011 to 2020.⁴⁴
Zimbabwe witnessed a rise in renewable energy generation, primarily through hydropower, leading to improved energy access and substantial job growth in clean energy sectors.⁴⁵ Despite strides made in improving energy and carbon intensity, South Africa's energy sector still has significant room for further enhancement.⁴⁶

On the other hand, several countries have experienced a reversal in energy transition momentum over the past three years, notably, the UK, Italy, Turkey, Angola and Kuwait. The UK has been an early leader in the energy transition and continues to be a top performer; however, the energy crisis hit UK households particularly hard as the country is heavily reliant on natural gas, contributing 39% of its energy mix, had a decline in momentum due to energy affordability declining.⁴⁷ The UK increased its liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the US. However, a lack of diversity in energy imports also impacts the security dimension.⁴⁸ Similarly, Italy is heavily reliant on gas, and Turkey has seen a decline in the equity dimension due to surging electricity and gas prices, accompanied by a drop in transition readiness performance, particularly in regulation and investments. Angola’s momentum has stalled due to a reduction in
renewable energy investments. Additionally, Kuwait remains one of the most carbon-intensive economies globally, characterized by heavy reliance on fossil fuels and high energy intensity.⁴⁹

Regional breakdown of ETI momentum reveals a wide divergence in performance, with Sub-Saharan Africa showing the strongest improvement, while the Commonwealth of Independent States experiences the most significant decline.

Figure 6: ETI momentum vs score by region, 2024

Sub-Saharan Africa leads with the highest positive momentum, driven primarily by advancements in energy security and regulations. The region has diversified its imports and significantly improved grid reliability. However, there is still substantial room for improvement, especially on the equity and finance fronts to expand access to electricity and clean cooking and unlock more investments in the energy
system. Advanced economies follow, with smaller yet positive momentum, mainly due to notable improvements in sustainability, including a decade-long trend of steadily decreasing energy and carbon intensity. Emerging and developing Asian countries have experienced modest positive momentum, driven by enhanced transition readiness across political commitments and infrastructure.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, momentum has levelled off, with improvements in sustainability from increased renewable energy contributions partially offset by declining equity due to gas prices. For emerging and developing Europe, the improvements in energy security and sustainability, through diversification in energy imports and increased renewable energy, have been partially offset by a decline in affordability.

The Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan has shown negative momentum due to sustainability challenges. Despite the region’s high potential for solar energy and deployment in a few countries, it has the highest energy intensity and trails other regions in terms of integrating renewable energy into the energy mix. The Commonwealth of Independent States also shows negative momentum, with
increasing energy prices and subsidies.