AMNC23: Braving the Headwinds: Rewiring Growth Amid Fragility

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Børge Brende, President, World Economic Forum: Thank you. It is always good to start with applause. A cordial welcome to our Annual Meeting for New Champions, also called Summer Davos 2023. It is our 14th Summer Davos in China and we are very proud to resume our Summer Davos and also in a time when we see that the Chinese economy is again growing after a period of COVID.

We would have hoped that the backdrop of this meeting had been better. I am thinking about the global geopolitical and geo-economic outlook, but this panel is about making the best out of this situation.

We do have growing inflation. We also have growing geopolitical uncertainty and we also have financial challenges around our financial institutions. But there is also opportunities when it comes to reviving economic growth.

Unfortunately this year we are seeing economic growth of 2.8% compared to last year, 3.4%. We will have two make sure that we are not moving into a lost decade. We need to revive growth. That has to be done also by cooperation, and trade is playing an important part here.

For many years trade was the driving engine for growth. Trade used to grow around 6% a year. Now it is growing at 2%.

If we introduce new tariffs, and a beggar-thy-neighbour approach, rather than a prosper-thy-neighbour, then we will not get back onto a sustainable growth trajectory.

The IMF, the International Monetary Fund, also just came out with a report, saying that if we go into a decoupling situation, it will shave off 7% of global GDP. That is like a depression, so that has to be avoided.

So to discuss this, the opportunities and challenges, we have a great panel. We are so happy that you could join us here during Summer Davos.

On my right-hand side we have Chris Hipkins, Prime Minister of New Zealand. Welcome, sir. Then we have the Prime Minister of Barbados Mia Mottley, coming from Paris. Welcome Madame Prime Minister. We also have Prime Minister of Viet Nam Pham Minh Chinh. Last but not least, Zhang Yuzhuo, in charge of many of the important companies in China. Welcome.

So maybe start with New Zealand and you, Prime Minister Hipkins. You just took over as Prime Minister. I know that you are very passionate about New Zealand also growing a green economy.

How can you see the green transition of your economy as an opportunity to revive growth. Some people think that green will bring down growth and not increase growth.

I guess you have thought this through very much?

Chris Hipkins, Prime Minister of New Zealand: A transition to a green economy is critical for us.

We rely on our clean green reputation and image around the world to sell the things we produce.

Increasingly in a world where awareness of climate change is becoming more pronounced every day, consumers are looking for products that are clean and green.

So for our exporters, being able to market internationally as a clean green brand is important, but we have to back that up by ensuring what we produce is actually produced in a way that is clean, green and sustainable.

There is also enormous opportunities for our local economy in moving to a more sustainable greener future.

Renewable electricity in New Zealand is cheaper, more affordable than electricity generated from fossil fuels. So there can be significant economic savings to be made through greater energy efficiency drives.

Børge Brende: I know New Zealand is active when it comes to trade and trade negotiations, but also establishing a lot of free trade agreements all over the world. How do you see this also in relation to multilateral agreements? It is not coming instead of WTO and multilaterals, I guess?

Chris Hipkins: We believe very firmly in an international rules-based system for trade, multilateral and bilateral trade agreements are incredibly important to New Zealand. We have been focusing on both of those.

There have been examples of quite big bilateral trade agreements, including a free trade agreement here in China that was signed in 2008 and upgraded in 2021, and other bilateral agreements. But we are also committed to the role we can play as part of multilateral trading arrangements. CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) is a really good example. New Zealand was in those negotiations right from the very beginning. I am very very pleased to see the CPTPP come into force. I think the quality of that agreement is evident in the number of additional companies want to join it. And so we see that there is absolutely room for bilateral and multilateral trading.

Børge Brende: Are you one of those worries about this decoupling notion?

Chris Hipkins: In what respect?

Børge Brende: That that can shave off a lot of growth if you have the geopolitical situation leading to new tariffs and protectionism you can shave off growth. How do you see the G2 for example coming together, the US and China. It seems as if there is some disconnect there for the time being?

Chris Hipkins: We wold like to see a world that continues to be open and outward-looking. There is a trend to be more inward-looking. Some is driven by the challenges we all face as a planet. Where there is more uncertainty, greater drive towards security and resilience, it can encourage countries to look inward for the solutions.

But actually, I think looking outward is how we will solve those problems. The whole world will need to work together to solve challenges around climate change, to solve challenges around shifting population demographics as the nature of population growth changes quite dramatically in the coming decades. The whole world will have to grapple with that so I do not think an inward-looking focus for any country will serve their long-term interests particularly well.

Børge Brende: Thanks. Let me move to Prime Minister Mia Mottley from Barbados.

Congratulations on the meeting in Paris where you were hosting with together with President Macron a new global financing pact. I think you made some progress. We have been waiting since Copenhagen for the $100 billion US a year. Maybe we are closer to getting there. On top, I think we need a couple of trillion to make sure we are successful with the decarbonisation and then, prime minister, you said several times that we need a green transition that leaves no one behind.

Where do we stand on this, also after Paris, are we on track? And how can we combine that green transition, decarbonisation but also jobs and economic growth?

Mia Mottley, Prime Minister of Barbados: I think, first, thanks for having me this morning. I think we are all agreed that first and foremost, the world is facing a climate crisis. And what is required is urgent action.

But we cannot take action if we do not have oxygen and the oxygen is in fact the capital, the finance needed to be able to fuel the activities both of the public sector and the private sector.

The public sector will focus on adaptation and being able to make the country and the people more resilient, but at the same time, that will mean investments within the country by the private sector themselves need.

Let's take hotels and beaches. If the coastal erosion is bad, their revenue will become compromised, so there are some instances where the private sector will benefit from increased savings or to avert loss of revenue with respect to adaptation.

But mitigation is where the private sector truly can drive the activities. When we were in Glasgow, I indicated 1.5 degrees is a death sentence for many countries in the world. It still is. And we have reached there on occasion now but it is a consistent 1.5 that will trouble us.

We have to make sure mitigation takes place, wherever it takes place on Earth.

The problem is there is a serious disparity in the pricing of capital between the global north and global south. Some relates to foreign exchange risk, some relates to lack of information and data, some relates to lack of confidence with respect to systems and rule of law. Some of it is unconscious bias.

We have, therefore, to start where we can make meaningful progress and we believe that is in the area of finance.

The private sector funding that is probably needed will be about $1.5 trillion, which means, if we can raise at least 300 billion, 400 billion, we can leverage to be able to get that unlocked.

As I said, it does not matter where mitigation takes place. Therefore, what we are trying to do is to see, can we go to Dubai to COP28 with a record rather than a promise? And can we make sure that, even if we cannot make the full amount between now and December, we make enough progress that persons and companies can start with their projects?

Because time is of the essence as we are seeing all over the world. There is no country excluded from the impact of this crisis. The reality is, while we focus on the increased capital for the multilateral development banks and regional development banks to help governments with adaptation, it is that private sector unlocking of funding that will help mitigate and keep temperatures below 1.5.

I do believe that it may require some countries stepping forward and not only putting in liquid cash. In some instances it would be SDRs (Special Drawing Rights). We probably need a governance mechanism that anchors this trust or catalytic fund in the IMF and the World Bank, because that then means those countries that want to use SDRs won't have that on their balance sheet. But if we can get that done while starting the scaling up of the capital of the multilateral development banks... In April this year we moved with the World Bank being able to unleash another 50 billion over 10 years. That was nowhere near enough. Last week the ambition, I think, is to do at least 200 billion over 10 years. We suspect that will not be enough, so financing will be critical, but at the same time, we will have to then look at regulatory issues and a whole host of procurement issues that have been disruptive, regrettably, by the difficulties with trade and the supply chain.

Børge Brende: Thank you very much, Just a short question. There have been a lot of discussions around COP28 coming up in UAE. There has been optimism and also some more reservations.

After the Paris meeting, how do you look at the possibilities for having a real impactful COP, not only taking stock but making sure countries take on more ambitions?

Mia Mottley: I think we have to recognise the COP meetings are not a destination and this is just a stop along the way.

The reality is last week Friday in Paris, I asked for and called for and will be making a call again, that there be a meeting between the UNFCC, the president of COP28, the private sector entities on the frontline both with respect to loss and damage and the causes of those companies that can perhaps help amplify the capital for the provision of an environment where we protect global public goods and the global public goods will range from the climate and biodiversity losses being reversed, to the issue of pandemics, to the issue of food and water insecurity, to the digital divide, fragility and conflict.

If we like it or not, we cannot rely only on public money.

Unless people have a plan to live on the planet Mars, they need to come to the table and see how best we can lift together. No one is suggesting it is done in a way that bankrupts any company, but what we are recognising is that, if we do not all put our shoulders to the plough, we will not have enough money to be able to do the things that are necessary within the time frame that can allow countries to transition, to be resilient, rather than face the tremendous losses that would otherwise be at risk if they do not make the adjustment.

Børge Brende: Thank you. Thank you for reminding us we don't have a planet B or a second planet, even if we are acting like we have a couple of extra planets.

Welcome to Dr Ngozi. I will let you breathe a little bit before we come to you. Very happy to see you as well. I will then move to Pham Minh Chinh, prime minister of Viet Nam.

As I said earlier, Viet Nam is still growing substantially - 6% we expect this year, 8% last year. Let's also send a big thank you to Asia because 70% of the global growth this year is coming from Asia. I think that needs applause.

Let's make sure we can keep up the growth, but as you know, Prime Minister, there are not an uncomplicated landscape we are faced with, there are possible new tariffs, there is new fractures in the global economy, there is inflation, it financial institutions having problems, there is a war in Ukraine.

What is the recipe for Viet Nam when it comes to sustaining growth in Viet Nam, but also, what does it take globally to get us back on a better growth path than 2.8%?

And for those who don't speak fluently Vietnamese, I suggest you take on your headset. Do you all have a headset? OK, good. Let's just put it on and then, Prime Minister, we are all prepared.

Pham Minh Chinh, Prime Minister of Viet Nam: Thank you. First, I would like to thank Mr President and and the panellists. I highly appreciate the WEF choosing Tianjin as the location and venue for the event because China, as we know, is the second largest economy in the world and China has stood up and built itself, built its status, and they have had experience against the headwinds, and I would also like to thank WEF and the host China for your invitation to attend this event.

I thank you, Mr President, for the opportunity to share with our discussion the thoughts and about your questions. I would like to go from the most simple issue, as you mentioned, and we are facing, what are the challenges we are facing and what should we do to address these challenges?

Currently, what are the headwinds we are facing? We have six headwinds hindering global development and Viet Nam's development.

First the economic recession and inflation, which has exerted great impacts on the lives of people.

Second, the adversities caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It could be prolonged and it cannot be addressed in just a few years.

Third, geopolitical competitive competition, protectionism, decoupling, fragmentation, with a lack of cohesion and solidarity.

Fourth, the conflict in Ukraine, which is jeopardising food security, energy security on a global scale, and other issues at a local scale that all of us here could feel the impact of this conflict.

And fifth, developing countries, could they have the adaptability and responsiveness against the external forces? Their resilience is not as great as developed countries. In other words, developing countries are more stricken by the external impacts.

And six, climate change, disasters and pandemics are posing great challenges to us. So I believe these the six issues are exerting great impacts on the world. Viet Nam is no exception. All of us here in this room can feel the impact.

And to address and breathe the headwinds, our approach is that it is a global approach because the current challenges are having impacts on a global scale. And the second approach, it is causing an impact on the entire people around the world, so we are taking an entire people approach to tackling issues.

And how are we going to brave the headwinds?

A number of key directions for us. Of course, when we take a global approach, we need to have global solidarity and multilateralism and an entire people approach. Putting people at the centre of change and development and the resource and the drivers for all the measures taken to tackle issues.

And to soon recover business, manufacturing and production, to create jobs for people, and increase investment and trade, creating capital flows and production and creating markets for our products. We are all responsible for this.

And third, international organisations and financial institutions, for example World Bank, the IMF, WTO, they need to take part in the policies, they will have to have preferential policies for the global issues that we need to address.

And then we need to activate the growth drivers, the new growth drivers. For example, digital transformation, green growth, circular economy.

And the growth drivers are consumption, investment, including public investment, private investment and FDI investment.

And then we need to expand our market for export, to remove tariffs and barriers and trade protection measures.

Now, some of us are increasing protectionism and tariffs and we are seeing decoupling issues and this is not going to address global challenges. No one country can solve the issues alone.

And as soon as there are still other people infected with COVID, for example, we will be at risk of infection. We need to diversify our markets and have preferential policies for developing countries because they need capital, technology, human resource training and improving of our institutions and policies and advanced technology. Those other areas that we need your support in.

We also need proper solutions to promote supply and demand and the confidence into the markets. We need to reinforce our monetary policies to increase confidence for the healthy development of markets.

And as I mentioned, to promote trade and investment, to reduce the cost of energy and food. And for those who are better off, they need to have better pricing to solve these global issues. We are not going to politicise economic issues. We are not going to encourage the factors hindering the global development.

And those are what I would like to share.

And then we need to also look for measures to address challenges and conflicts. In the 20th century we have been through wars that lasted for over three decades, so we understand the loss and the value of peace, not only for our own nation, but for all countries in the world.

Therefore we need to be responsible for putting an end to wars and conflicts in the world.

And finally, to increase public private partnership and cooperation to create favourable conditions for businesses to develop.

And in Viet Nam, in the last years, we started late, but we finish early. We had difficulties in having access to vaccines, but we established a vaccine fund and we conducted the vaccine diplomacy policy so that we could enlist the help of countries in addressing issues. And we also conducted free vaccination of the entire people so we could gain coverage at an early stage. We opened our economy in October 2021. To the world we opened on 15 March 2022.

We focused on three breakthroughs. First, infrastructure to develop critical infrastructure for development. Second, for improvement of our institutions and policies against the rapid changes. So we need to build our measures from the reality, from practices, so that we can adapt to a situation and, third, to train our human resources to meet the new demands of the new era, especially for digitalisation, green growth and circular economies. Those are the three breakthroughs.

And we are not going to sacrifice social welfare and social progress and environmental protection in exchange for mere growth. And the people are always put at our centre and are the driver for our growth.

Børge Brende: Thank you for your thoughtful response.

Let me move to Zhang Yuzhuo. China is the second largest economy in the world. It is a growing economy. We expect 5% growth in China this year, compared to 3% last year. So there is a real recovery going on, but as I also mentioned earlier on, the global picture is quite nuanced. So there are countries growing not so fast.

We also see inflationary pressure. I think there is a lot of interest in what are the policies China will take in the coming months to secure that growth, that it comes back at more of a 6-7% level rather than a 3% level. So over to you.

Zhang Yuzhuo, Chairman, State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC): I prefer to speak Chinese rather than English. Actually, Tianjin is my home.

Børge Brende: Welcome home.

Zhang Yuzhuo: You mentioned that China is currently reviving its economy. We are on a relatively better trajectory because for a relatively long time in the past China's contribution to the global GDP growth was above 30%.

For all the developing economies combined, it is about 70%.

Starting from this year, China maintained very positive momentum of economic recovery against the backdrop of multiple challenges globally.

In the past few months China has maintained stability in economic recovery. In Q1 we registered a 4.5% GDP growth. Based on the current consumption statistics, the growth is on a steady path of recovery.

The total retail sales grew by 9.3%. And on the supply side, we see that some new products and new sectors are registering faster growth. Sectors such as renewable energy vehicles, AEVs. In the first five months of this year they registered 50% of growth year-on-year. The production of AEVs accounted for half of the global total.

Also the solar PV panels. We talked about green transition. Other renewable energy forms such as wind, in terms of installed capacity, is seeing rapid growth. So on the production side we are also seeing positive signs for a strong recovery.

For the monetary supply, the growth of M2 was around 11% , which is reasonable. The consumer price index compared to certain countries where they run high inflation already, China still maintained around 1% CPI. Compared to around 2% in the past year, I think this year we are fairly good.

And employment is also quite stable. For investment, the SOEs (State-owned enterprises) directly administered by the State Council registered a 20% growth in fixed assets in the first five months, which is very rapid growth. Nationwide statistics have yet to see the data for the first five months, but for Q1 the growth was 4%. In terms of fixed asset investment growth. People estimate that in the first half of this year, Q2 will be better than Q1.

The World Bank and OECD and IMF all put out their own estimates.

The whole year growth forecast was revised up to 5.6%, 5.4% and 5.2% respectively. So these are the predictions made by the three international organisations.

People generally believe China's strong economic recovery helped boost the confidence in the global economy as a whole.

But we also have to be soberly aware of the fact that we are not free from challenges. For example, in terms of foreign trade, the growth was below what we had expected because, globally speaking, in the first five months, it was quite modest. This is caused by multiple factors.

And also, we need to create more new growth points for consumption. For consumption growth. It also was below our expectations. Some emerging sectors still need to be skilled up to generate a bigger impact. It is our hope that through high-level forums such as the summer Davos, we can build and maximise our consensus to deepen cooperation so that we can stave off the uncertainties with our own certainty and stability so we can collectively contribute to global economic recovery. Thank you.

Børge Brende: Thanks very much. I think that you are so right that we have to rebuild trust. There is a huge global trust deficit. A short question before I go to Dr Ngozi who is responsible for global trade and getting the economy driven by the trade engine, I'm wondering if we see new headwinds globally when it comes to growth that will also have impact on China because China is still an economy also relying on exports. What kind of ammunition does China have ready if there is a further slowing of the growth?

Zhang Yuzhuo: I think the global trade has been growing slower than what people had expected. There are several causes, for example, the trade barriers that we have mentioned which post new barriers to global trade.

In addition the policy coronation among major economies could be better.

And also, we often hear the talks of decoupling and related practices would also certainly impede international cooperation in trade. That is because if we follow the theory of comparative advantages, then different economies should fully leverage their own unique strengths to engage in trade and exchange so that we can minimise the total cost and realise development for all.

But if we go the other direction, then a natural consequence is a rise in production cost, and certainly, more of a slowdown in development.

Another factor is that we are seeing very rapid technological advances. In China, for example, especially among the SOEs and those directly administered by the State Council, there is a very strong drive for embracing technology as a major innovation source.

But, globally speaking, we still see major barriers in terms of free flow of technology and that is why I think it is really important to enhance mutual trust so that we can promote the global economic growth. Thank you.

Børge Brende: Thanks very much and thank you also underlying -- underlying what has brought us economic success the last decade, the comparative advantages. I think the system has been questioned but it doubled global GDP in three decades and eradicated poverty as we have not seen in the history of mankind.

So, coming to you, Ngozi, we know trade has been the engine behind this growth. Trade has grown with around 6% annually in the last decade. We are seeing now trade numbers of around 1.7, 2%, and we know that if we kind of decouple the economy, I think it is IMF that has then said we will shave off 7% of the global GDP. That is like a depression.

Listening to the panel, also seeing the global economic output now, are there realistic measures that we can agree on that can again revive trade? We know there will be no real recovery without trade and investment recovery. Over to you.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General, World Trade Organization (WTO): Thanks Børge. It is true that the outlook, the growth outlook, for the merchandise trade was forecast at 1.7% this year, compared to 2.7% last year, so a full percentage point below what we saw last year.

So that is very problematic.

But, at the same time, we have also... I want to repeat what you said about decoupling and fragmentation. This situation of slow growth, slower growth in trade, would be made far worse if the world were to decouple or fragment.

And at the WTO we actually did work 1.5 years ago to show that if we decouple into two trading blocks, it will cost the world 5% loss in global GDP in the longer term. The IMF estimates 7%, so along the same lines. That is like saying we lose the equivalent of the whole economy of Japan, which would be catastrophic for the world.

Actually for emerging markets and developing countries, we have focused double-digit losses in the order of 12 to 14%.

So decoupling and fragmentation is something that the world simply cannot afford to have, and that is why we have been very vocal in saying that this is one thing that we must avoid.

So, that said, we are also... It is not all doom and gloom, but before I get to the not all doom and gloom, I just want to mention one more headwind that we need to be sort of conscious of. The World Bank has done some work and shown that the long-term growth potential of both developed and developing countries emerging market economies is declining, and that is because of some structural factors like demographics, which we don't often talk about. The ageing populations in developed countries and emerging markets is going to exert some pressure, so we also need to be conscious of that and to be thinking of how we can harness areas where there is productivity growth where we are going to see in the young labour that is going to help spur global economy.

Now let me get back to the it's not all doom and gloom. We also see some opportunities on the trade side. I'll focus on three, one of which has been touched upon.

For us on the trade side, the first opportunity we see is that we are trying to build global resilience in the world after seeing the vulnerabilities with supply chains during the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Everybody is talking about building global resilience, de-risking, but at the WTO we prefer to interpret de-risking as part of building global resilience.

And usually there is talk of trying to do that by going from China plus one or two other countries like Viet Nam. And we like that Viet Nam's economy is doing well, Indonesia is doing well, India is another favourite, but we are also saying perhaps this is a big opportunity for the world to look at those areas, those regions, those countries that were left out of the first wave of globalisation, where there is really potential for business to establish, to decentralise supply chains to these areas, not just a few countries, but Latin America, you can look at Brazil, for instance, you can look at some of the island economies that may have potential in some areas. You can look at Africa, Morocco is doing very well, Senegal, Nigeria, my country, which is a large country. You can look at Asia, South Asia, Bangladesh.

I could go on. My point is, let us look at those areas that are friendly to investment and see if we cannot decentralise and diversify supply chains in such a way that we bring these areas into the world trade, integrate them better, and that way we are going to harness the productivity in these other areas. And that will help disperse global growth.

That is one opportunity I think we should not miss and I would like the business world to look at this potential.

So, that is the first one. We are calling that re-globalisation, reimagining globalisation and I think that is a very strong thing to think about.

I think the second opportunity has to do with what is happening with in trade itself. If you look at growth in trade, we will see there is one particular segment that is growing really fast and that is within services trade, there is digitally delivered services. And digitally delivered services all the way from streaming services to video, internet trade, all these services are growing at a phenomenal rate, about 8% per year, compared to 5.6% for goods trade. So that is where we see the potential and it is really interesting because that can also be very inclusive.

We see SMEs that are involved in the digital trade, digital era, we see youth, women who are harnessing this. So that is one area we should look. And there are one or two things we can do. The rules that underpin digital trade are not yet there. And at the WTO we are negotiating a set of rules on e-commerce to help ensure that this can be a level playing field.

We also need to look at the digital divide. How to bring the 2.7 billion people who are not on the internet in. But that is one area that is very, very interesting too.

I think the last one is green trade. We are also seeing trade in environmental goods and services grow and that is another potential opportunity that I think we need to harness and seize.

So these three areas are the green shoots, if you want to call them that, and I think we should, rather than dwell on the doom and gloom, we should turn our minds to how to harness these opportunities that are there that can help drive economic global recovery.

Børge Brende: Thank you very much. I think it is very good to come at the end of this panel to also focus on the opportunities ahead. And also calculations that we have done show that 80% of the growth in the future will come in areas where digital services are part of the solution, but how do we make sure that the winner does not take it all in this context? It also has to be an opportunity for developing countries to leapfrog. But still 2.7 billion people don't even have access to affordable internet. Can this digital revolution also lead to increased division and also between north and south if we do not get it right? And how are we going to get that right,? Dr Ngozi.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala: You're right. If we don't get it right and you don't invest to bring those who do not have the access in, we could exacerbate inequality. I do have one hope. When you look at those areas that do not have access to the internet, somehow the young population, they are more on the internet than the older ones. In Africa 55% of youth have access. They find their way.

Trying to look for affordable means, satellites and so on, to provide the accessing places that don't have it - and they are now less expensive ways of doing it, that is one way.

At the WTO we are working with the World Bank on a series of countries, the poorer countries, to help them bridge the digital divide. We need to reach out and invest. It is a doable proposition. If we combine that with the youth access, then I have more hope that the younger generation knows what to in terms of harnessing digital technology for the good of their economies.

Børge Brende: We started five minutes late. You each will have one minute for closing remarks, on an optimistic note, hopefully.

Chris Hipkins: I think the global economy has a lot to look forward to. There is a lot of pressure on the global economy at the moment, but one of the things we have to avoid is the temptation to look inwards and continue to look outwards.

But the technology is providing us with enormous opportunity to lift the living standards of people around the world to create a much more level playing field to deal with issues of inequality, with a speed that we have not seen before.

I think as long as we continue to look to each other and we continue to cooperate and we continue to promote an open and rules-based system for global trade, then I think there will be greater prosperity for everybody.

Børge Brende: Thank you. That deserves applause. Thank you. Prime Minister Mottley.

Mia Mottley: If ever there was a time for the public and private sector to work hand in glove, it is now. And if there was ever a time for the East and West to work together and the North and South to work togather, it is now.

We cannot take another crisis and decoupling presents that risk. Regrettably it will carry certain countries over the edge. I think you have heard Dr Ngozi make the point. In developing countries the level of decline will be significantly worse than what you are seeing.

At the same time the opportunities that are there for us to be able to have strong activity as we prepare for making ourselves more resilient are patent. Similarly, the opportunities to include as many people as possible. But you can't do that without dealing with basic access to electricity. Everything is interconnected. And if you can put the electricity in Africa, that is going to increase the number of young people using the internet.

At the same time the world has found out how to move capital, but the biggest problem, as you just heard, is not going to be the movement of capital, it's going to be the movement of people. If we have declining and ageing populations in countries and in other countries and oversupply of labour, then we will end up with structural impediments, of which Dr Ngozi spoke.

So I hope in all of this crisis, we will develop the conscience and capacity to work together cooperatively and to see people who have hitherto been excluded from the development narrative.

Børge Brende: Thank you. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh. One minute.

Pham Minh Chinh: Thank you very much. I believe we need to have international solidarity like I mentioned to address a few points: regarding diversifying the market, diversifying our products, diversifying our supply chain so we can address the current challenges, and to focus on innovation for the increase of the general supply and demand and to increase in trade and investment. And then to create more jobs and employment and to focus on emerging sectors, for example, digital transformation, and of course digital transformation without electricity, without the Internet, we are going to fall behind. We need to ensure that and we need to focus on green growth to tackle climate change. We also need to focus on the circular economy to protect the environment. Thank you.

Børge Brende: Thank you very much. I will go to Zhang Yuzhuo and then Dr Ngozi.

Zhang Yuzhuo: I believe there is still great potential for China to be a big engine for the world economy. There is still a lot of room for policy in China. I think we should have confidence that in quite a long time China will play a greater role. So China and the world economy is a unity. So I think that we should work together. Thank you.

Børge Brende: Thank you. On that also positive note and also the responsibility China takes for reviving global growth, I turn to you Dr Ngozi, my dear friend. You can come with some closing remarks in one minute and then we will listen to the Premier.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala: I won't be long. I hope we don't spend too much time on the doom and gloom and we focus on the opportunities before us, and they are there.

As I have said before, I don't want to repeat myself. Let's try to use the challenges and see the opportunities. If we can grow these economies by being inclusive of those who have been left out, we have a lot of business people here. Think about how to diversify your supply chains to other areas that have not been included in globalisation. Whether poor regions in which countries are poor countries who were left out you have the right business environment. And there are many, I insist on that, there are many of them.

Also see what you can do to invest in digital. The opportunities are there, we have all said it. And green.

We can do all of these things and still tackle the problem of inequality in the world by fostering those strategies that are inclusive.

Let me just end by saying we are optimistic and we hope we can persuade the business world and policymakers to also be optimistic. Thank you.

Børge Brende: Thank you very much. I would like to thank the panel. And excellent start of our summer Davos. I could not think of a more content-driven and optimistic, but realistic panel, so thank you for joining us this morning.

We will now go to the session where the new Premier will also share his views on China and the global economy. So let's give this great panel extra applause.